中国南海问题论文

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中美在南海地区的博弈分析

来源:未知 作者:陈赛楠
发布于:2017-01-12 共2690字
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  中 文 摘 要
  
  当前南海地区岛屿主权和海洋权益争端不断加深,南海问题相关国家不断采取挑衅行为来破坏南海地区稳定秩序。而作为域外国家的美国也借着维护国际正义和国际航道通行自由来干涉中国的南海事务,这更激起南海问题相关国家对南海地区秩序的冲击。南海问题十分复杂,涉及的相关问题以及当事方较多,从表象上看,南海问题主要是中国与南海周边的东南亚国家之间的利益纠纷,但实质上是美国回归亚太后,为实现对中国的制衡,在南海地区进行战略博弈。研究南海问题是多方面和多视角的,但是要真正认识南海问题,就需要充分认识中美在南海地区的博弈进程。所以本文将中美在南海地区的中美博弈作为主要研究对象,深刻剖析南海问题的实质,从而对南海问题有一个正确、全面解读。
  
  要认识到南海问题的实质是中美关系博弈,就需要对南海问题的缘起加以梳理。本文第一部分从东盟国家对南海问题的立场态度,以及美国在南海问题立场上变化,来分析出当年南海问题不断激化的主要原因在于美国借助南海问题同中国进行博弈。本文第二章和第三章主要是对在南海问题中,中美两国是如何进行博弈的。从多方面浅析博弈现状与进程,中美两国在南海问题上的政策对立,力量部署对立,以及受美国影响的东盟国家对中国的对立,从而促使中美在南海博弈上形成对立态势。在博弈手段上,美国试图通过国际舆论将中国的南海问题国际化,并且拉拢东盟有关国家来制衡中国。同时,中国为了维护自身核心利益和保证南海地区安全秩序,采取必要措施加以应对。无论是在态势上,还是中美在南海地区的安全关系互动上,都将形成博弈关系。在此基础上,可以对中美在南海问题上的博弈实质进行总结。本文第四章从地缘战略下的遏制与突围,海上航行安全的管辖权争夺,以及地区影响力的竞争三个方面对中美在南海地区的博弈实质进行归纳。南海问题依旧存在,并在发展态势上不容乐观,但并非是无法解决的问题。本文第五章,从博弈方数量将会增加,博弈强度将会加大,以及解决路径的产生,从正反两面来分析中美在南海问题上博弈的发展趋势,以此对南海问题有一个理性认识。
  
  关键词:南海问题; 中美关系 ;大国博弈
  
  Abstract
  
  The conflict about sovereignty and maritime rights of South China Sea area amongsome Southeast Asian nations is getting serious, and those counties try to takeprovocative actions to destabilize the stable social order of South China Sea area. As anextraterritorial country, the USA also intervenes in this problem, which makes thoseSoutheast Asian nations become more aggressive. This problem is quit complicated, andit is about the interest dispute between China and those countries; however, after the USAinvolving, China has to face more stress from different aspects to protect South China Seaarea. Besides, China puts forward to some efficient strategies to against with it. Withvarious aspects and perspectives, this paper will deeply research the whole process of thegame between the USA and China in this problem in detail.
  
  To recognize the essence of the South China Sea issue in Sino-US relations game,we need to sort out the problem of the origin of the South China Sea. The first part of theASEAN countries stand the attitude of the South China Sea, South China Sea and theUnited States on the position change, to analyze the South China Sea issue simmeringyear mainly due to the United States by means of the South China Sea issue with Chinesegame. Chapters II and III of this article is mainly on the South China Sea issue, the twocountries is how to make the game. Status of the Game with the process in many ways,China and the US policy in the South China Sea issue on the opposition, the oppositionforces to deploy, as well as the ASEAN countries affected by the US opposition to China,prompting the formation of Sino-US confrontation in the South China Sea situation of thegame. On the game means, the United States tried by international public opinion of theChinese South China Sea issue international, and draw relevant ASEAN countries tobalance China. Meanwhile, in order to safeguard its core interests of China and the SouthChina Sea to ensure regional security order, to take the necessary measures to deal with.
  
  Both in the situation, or to interact with the Sino-US relations in the security of the SouthChina Sea, the game will form relationships. On this basis, can be the essence of theAmerican game in the South China Sea were summarized. Chapter four from threeaspects to curb competition and Breakout geostrategic under the safety of maritimenavigation jurisdiction over competition, and regional influence on the substance of USgame in the South China Sea to summarize. South China Sea issue is still there, and is notoptimistic on the development trend, but not unsolvable problem. Chapter five, willincrease from the number of game players, the game will increase the strength and resolveto produce path from both sides to analyze the development trend of Sino-US game in theSouth China Sea, South China Sea issue in order to have a rational knowledge.
  
  Key Word: Issue of South China Sea area; the relationship between China and America;The Gambling


  目 录
  
  绪 论
  
  1. 研究意义
  
  2. 研究现状
  
  3. 研究方法
  
  第 1 章 南海问题的缘起
  
  1.1 南海问题的历史演变
  
  1.2 东盟各国在南海问题上的立场
  
  1.3 中美在南海问题的立场变迁
  
  第 2 章 中美在南海问题的对立现状
  
  2.1 中美在南海的政策对立
  
  2.2 中美在南海的力量布局
  
  2.3 东盟在南海对中美的影响
  
  第 3 章 中美在南海地区的博弈手段
  
  3.1 美国引导南海问题国际化
  
  3.2 美国联合东盟各国制衡中国
  
  3.3 中国加强对南海地区的掌控
  
  第 4 章 中美南海问题博弈的实质
  
  4.1 地缘战略下的遏制与突围
  
  4.2 南海地区海域航道管辖权的竞争
  
  4.3 新的力量格局下地区影响力的争夺
  
  第 5 章 中美在南海问题的博弈趋势
  
  5.1 域外大国博弈棋手增加
  
  5.2 南海问题中美博弈力度的增强
  
  5.3 未来解决南海问题的路径选择
  
  结 论
  
  参考文献
  
  致 谢
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